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December 2001 / January 2002

WORLD

Next WTO met in Mexico

Mexico will host the next meeting of ministers from the 144 nations of the World Trade Organization, the body decided recently.

WTO Director General Mike Moore said the meeting would be chaired by Mexico’s Economy Minister Luis Ernesto Derbez. "They are very confident about running this ministerial," he said.

The decision was taken by the WTO’s general council barely a month after the end of its last ministerial meting in Doha, Qatar, where ministers agreed to launch a new round of trade liberalization negotiations.

The exact location and the date of the meeting have not been set. Under WTO rules, it must take place by the end of 2003, but it is likely it will be earlier in the year.

Moore declined to say when he thought the meeting would be. "Timing is up to ministers and to members," he said. Among the tasks governments must face at the meeting is deciding on whether to add additional areas to the subjects under negotiations, and how to go about completing the round. The Doha meeting agreed to aim to finish the talks by Jan. 1, 2005.

They may also face a rerum of some of the problems that led in part to the collapse of the 1999 ministerial in Seattle anti WTO rioting. Campaigners claim the WTO favors big business over poor people and is undemocratic.

WTO budget raised by 6.75 percent

Members of the World Trade Organization has approved a 6.75 percent increase in their annual budget as they prepared for the start of a round of trade liberalization negotiations.

The body’s 2002 budget was set at just over $87 million said spokesman Keith Rockwell. In addition, there will be $9 million to help poorer countries prepare for the negotiations. The money will be paid by the WTO’s 143 member governments.

Trade ministers agreed last month to launch the new round of talks, which will last at least until the beginning of 2004. WTO Director General Mike Moore has restructured some of the body’s departments to take account of its new workload.

US economy to rebound

Some economic predictions for 2002: The U.S. economy, in recession now, will begin to rebound by next summer; Asia will continue to struggle, but a financial crisis is unlikely; the Euro zone’s economies will barely grow. In Latin America, all eyes will be on Argentina.

"The economic slowdown that started in the United States from 2000 and spilled over to other countries, has turned into a global economic turndown," the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said in a November report.

In its latest review, the Paris based OECD said the world’s biggest economies will shrink by 0.3 percent in the second half of the year 2001 the first recession in two decades. Growth among the 30 member countries would be no more than 1 percent in 2001 and next.

The leading U.S. investment bank Merrill Lynch predicted global growth of 1.2 percent in 2001 and 1.5 percent in 2002, down from 3.8 percent in 2000.

The after-effects of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, especially on the U.S. economy were being blamed for the expected slowdown.

The International Monetary Fund, updating its economic forecast to reflect the attacks in which 3,000 died, significantly lowered its estimates for growth in the United States and Japan. It also slashed its expectations for global growth to 2.4 percent both for 2001 and 2002.

The OECD forecast a strong rebound in 2003, when the overall growth should bounce back to 3 percent.

Since the recession began, the economy has lost about 1.2 million jobs. Nearly 800,000 of those job losses occurred in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks, which badly shook consumer confidence and dealt a big blow to an already fragile economy.

US trade deficit falls

The U.S. deficit in the broadest measure of foreign trade fell to dlrs 94.98 billion in the July-September quarter, the smallest in nearly two years, reflecting an American economy in recession and huge foreign insurance payments from the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

The Commerce Department said the deficit in the current account dropped by 11.7 percent from an April-June imbalance of dlrs 107.58 billion. That was the smallest trade gap since a deficit of dlrs 92.47 billion in the final quarter of 1999.

The current account is considered the broadest measure of trade because it covers not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also the flow of investment and items such as foreign aid.

For all of 2000, the current account deficit hit a record dlrs 444.7 billion, pompting concerns among economists that unless the imbalance began to shrink the United States could begin to have serious problems attracting the foreign capital needed to finance such a huge deficit.

While the deficit and shrink in the third quarter, the improvement came for all the wrong reasons imports fell because of weakening U.S. demand, reflecting the first recession in a decade.

Another factor helping to narrow the deficit was a widening in American’s surplus in services trade as a result of dlrs 11 billion in foreign insurance payments tied to the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. In the government’s accounting system, the claims that must be paid by foreign insurance companies acted to lower the trade deficit.

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