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March / April 2003

 

ASIA


China's economy posts 8% growth

China confirmed its status as the world fastest growing major economy recently announcing an expansion of eight percent in 2002 and predicting growth will remain over seven percent this year.

Last year gross domestic product (GDP) reached 10.24 trillion Yuan (1.25 trillion dollars), national bureau of statistics commissioner Zhu Zhixin said at a press conference. Growth last year was up from 7.3 percent in 2001.

The 2002 figure is slightly higher than a 7.9 percent forecast recently made by the State Information Center a government think-tank, and a seven percent forecast made early last year.

Zhu said fourth quarter growth came in at 8.1 percent, matching the third quarter figure. Growth in the first three months of 2002 was 7.6 percent, which jumped to eight percent in the second quarter.

Zhu attributed China's fast growth to large-scale government spending, which accounted for roughly half of GDP in 2002 after steadily rising over the past five years.

Fixed assets investment an indication of government spending on infrastructure and other area rose 16.1 percent over the previous year, reaching 4.3 trillion yuan. The investment exceeded four trillion Yuan for the first time and the growth was the highest since 1996.


Japan's economy enjoys growth

Japan defied its crities recently by announcing its economy continued to grow through to the end of last year thanks to resilient private spending and rising exports.

Gross domestic product (GDP) in the three months to December slowed to 0.5 percent from the previous quarter when it expanded a revised 0.7 percent.

But the figure contrasted sharply with private economists expectations of around a 0.4 percent contraction, boosting stock prices and the yen.

"It's a surprise, it was totally out of the range or economists surveyed." Said JP Morgan chief economist Masaki Kanno.

"The Japanese economy has not lost momentum up to the end of last year that is the main message," he said.

In an annualized basis, the world's second-biggest economy expanded 2.0 percent in October-December.

"The main surprise was a much stronger than expected private consumption figure," said Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein (DKW) economist Shuji Shirota.

Private consumption, which accounts for about 60 percent of GDP advanced 0.1 percent in the three months to December, much slower than the 0.8 percent rise seen in July-September, but remaining in positive territory despite fears over a slump in wages and growing unemployment.


Japan registers trade deficit with Asia

Japan suffered a trade deficit with the rest of Asia in January as imports from China surged and Japanese exports slowed, official data showed recently.

The deficit fell by 44.9 percent from a year earlier to 25.44 billion yen ($211.96 million).

However, it compared with a surplus of 474.1 billion yen in December, the finance ministry said.

Exports to the region increased by 15.4 percent to 1.63 trillion yen, slower than the 25.2 percent jump seen in December. In January, imports advanced by 13.5 percent to 1,66 trillion yen.

"Generally, export figures in January came in weaker due to the new year holiday. The overall rising trend in exports and imports has not changed," a finance ministry official said.


Singapore plans new economic vision

This tiny Southeast Asian city state long known for its wealth but now facing intense challenges recently unveiled an economic strategy to compete with nearby giants China and India.

The plan calls for lower for lower personal and corporate taxes, higher goods and services taxes and freezing the amount employers must pay into a state pension program. The Economic Review Committee, a high-level group of nearly 1,000 people led by Deputy Prime Minister Lee Hsien Long, presented its 200 page report after spending 14 months deliberating ways. The report forecasts annual economic growth rates of 3 percent to 5 percent over the next 15 years despite increasing competition from ambitious neighbors.

Singapore's development hinges on expanding its exports beyond the United States, the European Union and Japan, into emerging markets such as China and India-but it must also compete for exports with both countries, which have low wage costs and two billion consumers, the report said. Singapore should also continue to diversity its manufacturing base and expand its services industry, the report added.


Thailand's tourism industry expected to grow

Thailand's tourism industry is expected to grow by 10 percent this year and generate as much as 360 billion bath (US$8.4 billion), despite fears about terrorism and the global economy, a private research center said recently.


Vietnam's exports up

Vietnam's February exports rose 44.2 percent compared with a year ago to 1.25 billion dollars, offset by a 25.9 percent rise in imports to 1.4 billion dollars, preliminary government figures showed recently.

Rice exports soared 149.8 percent to 23 million dollars, while exports of rubber were up 118.2 percent, cashew nuts 59.4 percent and tea 45.2 percent, according to the General Statistics Office.

Exports of crude oil grew 71.9 percent to 330 million dollars even though the volume rose just 0.5 percent to 1.34 million tones.

Textile and garment exports also rose 81.5 percent, while seafood grew 31.9 percent.

On the other side of the equation, motorbike imports recorded the largest jump, up 111.6 percent to 29 million dollars, while iron and steel imports increased 58.5 percent to 114 million dollars.

The import bill for refined oil products rose 38.5 percent to 169 million dollars. Despite having sizeable oil reserves, Vietnam has no operating refineries and so is reliant on imported petroleum based products.

Equipment and machine imports increased 30.1 percent to 270 million dollars.


Philippine business expect flat growth

Business executives in the Philippines expect flat growth for the economy this year, with many fearing higher inflation and interest rates, results of a survey released recently showed.

The poll conducted by the respected Makati Business Club from January 15 to 30 covered 102 member executives.

"The expect the economy in 2003 to perform about the same as in 2002," it said.

"Fifty percent of survey respondents believe that GDP (gross domestic product) growth in 2003 will match growth in 2002," the group said, adding that 17 percent expect a slowdown.

"For 2003, a majority of respondents now believe both inflation and interest rates will be higher than in 2002."


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